Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 21.676416 23.562264 25.599324 27.974045 30.680092 33.684037 37.293760
2025-11-02 18.595542 21.141166 24.079855 27.764590 32.321311 37.854164 45.212777
2025-11-09 16.517133 19.442808 23.002310 27.741013 34.027636 42.304236 54.434399
2025-11-16 14.911108 18.041432 22.013902 27.571777 35.404782 46.495506 64.320978
2025-11-23 13.659136 16.902573 21.165000 27.386372 36.633420 50.627265 75.209753
2025-11-30 12.644526 15.944410 20.411230 27.174350 37.714295 54.675423 87.154773
2025-12-07 11.860069 15.206658 19.858143 27.140445 39.004174 59.265591 101.621977
2025-12-14 11.157427 14.510627 19.278600 26.965279 39.995832 63.509461 117.037633
2025-12-21 10.834446 14.318430 19.402351 27.881504 42.950222 72.042784 146.008894
2025-12-28 10.268618 13.722746 18.855357 27.625251 43.755715 76.522282 167.478845
2026-01-04 9.818020 13.262697 18.472398 27.588897 44.946395 82.108527 195.613450
2026-01-11 9.482516 12.950386 18.290624 27.869426 46.785337 89.669502 235.906665
2026-01-18 9.059547 12.485332 17.840639 27.648985 47.635918 95.303748 275.578439
2026-01-25 8.668533 12.047078 17.402930 27.406865 48.414414 101.078147 322.954615
2026-02-01 8.347747 11.700250 17.091057 27.366053 49.632843 108.533775 389.444342
2026-02-08 8.030777 11.340632 16.730474 27.191526 50.520880 115.417572 465.919616
2026-02-15 7.737640 11.002959 16.383259 27.005632 51.353442 122.517441 560.738606
2026-02-22 7.463449 10.681445 16.041982 26.795827 52.095401 129.695140 678.099161
2026-03-01 7.236221 10.425507 15.799015 26.761615 53.279315 139.034797 853.142309
2026-03-08 7.004807 10.150828 15.504417 26.589481 54.078549 147.407365 1064.067416
2026-03-15 6.937811 10.148920 15.702682 27.486962 57.956845 170.556180 1706.548315
2026-03-22 6.720511 9.879610 15.390218 27.235794 58.563609 179.962557 2229.283138
2026-03-29 6.544413 9.673293 15.183075 27.200119 59.804741 193.335254 3185.348071